As promised in Friday's brief Market Pulse, today I'm providing a deeper analysis of last week's market shift. The data showed a significant cooling across all metrics, and after observing weekend activity and speaking with colleagues, I have a clearer picture of what's happening.
Important reminder: Our market data is slightly lagging. The figures we're analyzing today (April 2-9) don't include this past weekend's activity, which will appear in next week's Market Pulse.
Understanding the Numbers
Last week we saw:
Multiple offers dropping to 47% (down from 69%)
Average offers per property falling to 1.5 (down from 2.2)
Above-list sales decreasing to 58% (down from an extraordinary 94%)
Below-list sales returning at 21% (up from 0%)
Full inspections surging to 47.4% (up from just 12.9%)
This represents a substantial market shift in just one week. But what's truly interesting is how this fits into the broader pattern we've seen over the past month.
The Bigger Picture: Market Volatility Reflects Uncertainty
These rapid week-to-week swings suggest buyers are reacting to constantly shifting economic signals, policy announcements, and financial market conditions rather than fundamental housing supply and demand factors.
These rapid swings aren't typical of a healthy, predictable market—they're a clear artifact of the significant uncertainty facing both buyers and sellers. The dramatic week-to-week changes suggest buyers are reacting to constantly shifting economic signals, policy announcements, and financial market conditions rather than fundamental housing supply and demand factors.
What's Really Driving This Volatility?
Several factors appear to be influencing these dramatic swings:
Financial Market Turbulence: Last week's stock market volatility created immediate uncertainty, causing some buyers to pause. This explains the rapid cooling after the previous week's surge.
Mixed Economic Signals: While recent employment reports have shown some resilience, there's growing concern about potential federal workforce reductions and their ripple effects on our regional economy. This is particularly significant in Maryland, where approximately 10% of our GDP comes from government or government contracting, sectors now facing serious layoffs and restructuring. The uncertainty around these economic indicators is giving buyers and sellers conflicting signals.
Thin Buyer Pool: As our showing data indicated last week, the overall buyer pool is smaller than in previous spring markets. This means fewer buyers are competing, but those who are active tend to be highly motivated, creating these feast-or-famine competitive scenarios.
Inventory Fluctuations: We're seeing uneven inventory flow, with some weeks bringing significant new listings and others relatively few, creating these alternating periods of competition and breathing room.
My Weekend Open House: A Microcosm of the Market
My open house this weekend for a new listing provided real-time confirmation of these trends. Attendance was moderate rather than overwhelming, but the visitors who came through were serious, qualified buyers. Several commented specifically on the financial market volatility and how it had impacted their timeline.
One couple mentioned they had been prepared to make offers last month but were now being more selective and patient. Another buyer specifically cited stock portfolio losses as a reason for reconsidering their budget.
Let's explore what the current market conditions mean for your specific neighborhood below.
🏡 Bethesda, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,399,000 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $1,562,000 ⬇️
Price Per Square Foot: $464 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 82 ⬆️
Median Days on Market: 28
Price Decreased: 34% ⬆️
Price Increased: 2% ⬇️
Relisted: 8% ⬇️
Inventory: 97 ⬆️
Median Rent: $4,425 ⬇️
Market Action Index (MAI): 40 (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The market continues to cool as inventory remains high at 97 properties. Price trends are negative across most segments, with only the highest tier showing mixed signals. A notable disparity exists between the average days on market (82) and median (28), highlighting that while many homes move quickly, others linger significantly longer. The detailed price per square foot analysis ($464) shows consistent downward pressure on values. At current absorption rates, the lower quartile ($1.4M range) is moving briskly with just 14 Days on Market (DOM), while higher tiers face longer marketing periods.
🏢 Bethesda, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $455,000 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $637,000 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $425 ⬆️
Average Days on Market: 64 ⬆️
Median Days on Market: 32 ⬆️
Price Decreased: 37% ⬆️
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 18% ⬆️
Inventory: 38 ⬇️
Median Rent: $3,000 ⬇️
Market Action Index (MAI): 49 (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Despite consistent market cooling, the MAI remains at a robust 49, signaling continued seller strength. The Market Monitor suggests price weakness is visible across most segments, with all but the lowest-priced units showing negative pressure. This price plateau comes with stable inventory (38 units), but demand remains significant enough to maintain seller leverage. While 37% of listings have seen price decreases (up from 15%), the strong MAI suggests this is more about correction than market weakness.
🏡 Chevy Chase, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,495,000 ⬇️
Median Price of New Listings: $1,591,500 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $547 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 98 ⬇️
Median Days on Market: 28 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 49% ⬆️
Price Increased: 3% ⬇️
Relisted: 14% ⬇️
Inventory: 35 ⬆️
Median Rent: $5,873 ⬆️
Market Action Index (MAI): 33 (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Nearly half of all listings have seen price reductions, reflecting significant market adjustment. The inventory continues to climb, now at 35 homes. The Market Monitor shows price weakness across all quartiles, with the median price dropping from $2,700,000 to $2,495,000 since last week. The top quartile ($4.1M+) faces especially challenging conditions with 220+ days on market, while entry-level properties ($1.3M range) move in just 14 days. The price per square foot continues its downward trend despite median days on market improving from 42 to 28.
🏢 Chevy Chase, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $489,000 ⬇️
Median Price of New Listings: $279,950 ⬇️
Price Per Square Foot: $424 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 71 ⬇️
Median Days on Market: 42 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 35%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 5% ⬇️
Inventory: 55 ⬆️
Median Rent: $2,715
Market Action Index (MAI): 32 ⬇️ (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The MAI has slipped further to 32 (down from 36 last month), moving closer to the neutral threshold (30). Inventory has increased significantly to 55 units, applying additional downward pressure on prices. The dramatic shift in new listing price (now $279,950 compared to $450,000 last week) signals a potential market correction. Bottom quartile units ($247K range) are moving most quickly at 14 days on market, while premium units ($1.5M+) languish for 77 days. The MAI continues its downward trend, suggesting buyers may gain additional leverage in coming weeks.
🏡 Gaithersburg, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $894,900 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $824,900 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $300 ⬆️
Average Days on Market: 81 ⬆️
Median Days on Market: 21
Price Decreased: 37% ⬆️
Price Increased: 6% ⬇️
Relisted: 6% ⬇️
Inventory: 52 ⬆️
Median Rent: $3,250 ⬆️
Market Action Index (MAI): 48 ⬇️ (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Despite 37% of listings seeing price reductions (up from 28% last week), the MAI remains strong at 48, though continuing its gradual decline from 50 last month. The stark contrast between average days on market (81) and median days on market (21) indicates a split market - most properties move quickly, while a subset lingers significantly longer. The luxury segment ($1.7M+) faces particular challenges with 252 days on market, while the lower three quartiles maintain consistent 21-day marketing periods. The 6% of properties seeing price increases suggests strategic repositioning in specific microsegments.
🏢 Gaithersburg, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $389,990 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $424,900 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $270 ⬆️
Average Days on Market: 53 ⬆️
Median Days on Market: 28 ⬆️
Price Decreased: 30% ⬆️
Price Increased: 0% ⬇️
Relisted: 7% ⬇️
Inventory: 56 ⬆️
Median Rent: $2,165 ⬆️
Market Action Index (MAI): 60 ⬇️ (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: With an MAI of 60 (down slightly from 64 last month), this market maintains its strong seller orientation despite cooling indicators. The Market Monitor shows continued downward pricing pressure in the lower half of the market, while higher-priced units maintain stability. The median days on market has increased to 28 (from 14 last week), suggesting slightly slower absorption. Top-tier units ($574K+) maintain the quickest marketing period at 21 days, while entry-level units have slowed to 31 days. The higher median price of new listings ($424,900) compared to the overall median ($389,990) suggests a shift toward higher-quality inventory.
🏡 Germantown, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $825,000 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $799,000 ⬇️
Price Per Square Foot: $249 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 45 ⬆️
Median Days on Market: 14 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 30% ⬆️
Price Increased: 9% ⬇️
Relisted: 0%
Inventory: 23 ⬆️
Median Rent: $2,520 ⬇️
Market Action Index (MAI): 54 ⬆️ (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: The MAI has strengthened to 54 (up from 50 last month), countering the broader cooling trend seen in other markets. Despite 30% of listings seeing price decreases, the strong MAI suggests strategic rather than distressed adjustments. The notable average-to-median DOM gap (45 vs. 14) indicates a bifurcated market. The ultra-luxury segment ($2.3M+) faces significant challenges, while the mid-range ($809K) shows exceptional strength with just 7 days on market. The 9% of properties seeing price increases (highest in our tracking area) highlights pockets of intense demand despite the overall price weakness trend.
🏢 Germantown, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $332,500 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $357,500 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $260 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 38 ⬆️
Median Days on Market: 14 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 33% ⬇️
Price Increased: 3% ⬆️
Relisted: 0% ⬇️
Inventory: 40 ⬆️
Median Rent: $1,949 ⬇️
Market Action Index (MAI): 70 ⬆️ (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: With the highest MAI in our tracking area at 70 (up remarkably from 65 last month), this market demonstrates exceptional seller strength. Despite 33% of listings seeing price decreases, the continued outpacing of supply by demand is creating upward pressure. The Market Monitor shows new listings entering at higher price points ($357,500) than the current median ($332,500), suggesting market strengthening. Premium segment properties ($489K+) are moving in just 10 days, while mid-tier homes average just 7 days on market - the fastest in our entire tracking system. This market contradicts the broader regional cooling trend.
🏡 Kensington, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $975,000 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $999,000 ⬇️
Price Per Square Foot: $367 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 57 ⬇️
Median Days on Market: 14 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 26% ⬇️
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 11% ⬆️
Inventory: 19 ⬆️
Median Rent: $3,750 ⬆️
Market Action Index (MAI): 50 ⬇️ (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: The MAI continues its downward trend to 50 (from 56 last month), though remains firmly in seller's market territory. The price action has been mixed, with the top quartile ($2M+) showing strength while middle tiers see downward pressure. The median price has increased from $929,900 to $975,000, driven primarily by new listing composition. The remarkable contrast between top-tier homes (80 DOM) and mid-tier properties (7-14 DOM) presents strategic opportunities for buyers willing to focus on specific property types. The decline in price decreased listings (26% vs. 45% previously) may signal market stabilization.
🏡 Poolesville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,124,000 ⬇️
Median Price of New Listings: $1,100,000 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $400
Average Days on Market: 200
Median Days on Market: 245 ⬆️
Price Decreased: 0%
Price Increased: 0% ⬇️
Relisted: 0% ⬇️
Inventory: 4
Median Rent: $3,500
Market Action Index (MAI): 43 ⬆️ (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: With only 4 active listings, metrics for Poolesville remain highly volatile. The MAI has strengthened to 43 (up from 40 last month), despite the significant drop in median list price from $1,548,175 to $1,124,000. The Market Monitor reveals extremely long marketing periods (200 days average/245 days median), suggesting these properties may have unique characteristics or pricing challenges. A new $1.1M listing has entered the market, which may impact metrics in coming weeks. The dramatic contrast between the ultra-luxury segment ($8.9M) at 308 DOM and other properties highlights the extreme market segmentation in this area.
🏡 Potomac, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,499,000 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $1,429,500 ⬇️
Price Per Square Foot: $372 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 100 ⬇️
Median Days on Market: 35 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 29% ⬆️
Price Increased: 4% ⬇️
Relisted: 2% ⬇️
Inventory: 45 ⬆️
Median Rent: $5,500 ⬆️
Market Action Index (MAI): 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The MAI has held steady at 44, but the Market Monitor narrative has shifted significantly to suggest strengthening market conditions. Inventory has increased to 45 properties while the median price increased slightly from $2,472,250 to $2,499,000. The extreme market segmentation continues with entry-level properties ($1.3M range) moving in just 3 days, while ultra-luxury homes ($7.9M+) require 140+ days to sell. New listings are entering at significantly lower price points ($1,429,500) than the overall median, suggesting a potential shift in market composition. The modest percentage of price increases (4%) indicates selective strength rather than broad-based appreciation.
🏡 Rockville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $930,000 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $912,000 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $366 ⬆️
Average Days on Market: 33 ⬇️
Median Days on Market: 14
Price Decreased: 34% ⬆️
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 9% ⬇️
Inventory: 58 ⬆️
Median Rent: $3,400
Market Action Index (MAI): 61 ⬇️ (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Despite a slight MAI decline to 61 (from 62 last month), Rockville maintains exceptional seller advantage. The Market Monitor shows continued price appreciation with median list price rising from $850,000 to $930,000, while marketing periods remain extremely brief with median DOM holding at 14 days. Entry-level properties ($604K range) are moving in just 7 days. Inventory has increased significantly to 58 homes (up from 40), but absorption remains robust enough to maintain market dynamics. Despite 34% of listings seeing price decreases (up from 28% last week), the overall market trajectory remains positive with strong price per square foot growth.
🏢 Rockville, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $454,450 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $467,400 ⬇️
Price Per Square Foot: $358 ⬆️
Average Days on Market: 55 ⬇️
Median Days on Market: 28 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 27% ⬇️
Price Increased: 6% ⬇️
Relisted: 6% ⬇️
Inventory: 114 ⬆️
Median Rent: $2,495 ⬆️
Market Action Index (MAI): 41 ⬆️ (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The MAI has strengthened slightly to 41 (from 40 last month) despite inventory climbing to 114 units. The price trends show modest strength in most segments, with median list price increasing from $442,000 to $454,450. Marketing periods have improved with average DOM dropping from 68 to 55 days and median DOM falling from 35 to 28 days, indicating improved absorption. The decreasing percentage of price reductions (27% vs. 29% previously) coupled with 6% of properties seeing price increases suggests market stabilization despite the substantial inventory growth.
🏡 Silver Spring, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $691,950 ⬆️
Median Price of New Listings: $709,950 ⬆️
Price Per Square Foot: $324 ⬆️
Average Days on Market: 56 ⬇️
Median Days on Market: 14 ⬇️
Price Decreased: 40% ⬆️
Price Increased: 4% ⬇️
Relisted: 11% ⬆️
Inventory: 94 ⬆️
Median Rent: $2,900 ⬇️
Market Action Index (MAI): 58 ⬇️ (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: The MAI remains robust at 58, though showing modest cooling from 60 last month. Despite 40% of listings seeing price decreases (up from 34%), the brief marketing periods (14 median DOM, down from 28) indicate strong fundamental demand. Inventory has increased significantly to 94 properties (up from 61), but absorption remains healthy across all segments. The top quartile ($979K+) is performing exceptionally well with just 7 days on market, driven by luxury buyers seeking value compared to neighboring communities. The 4% of properties seeing price increases amid broader adjustment suggests strategic positioning by sellers in high-demand microsegments.
🏢 Silver Spring, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $257,000 ⬇️
Median Price of New Listings: $248,500 ⬇️
Price Per Square Foot: $245 ⬇️
Average Days on Market: 72 ⬆️
Median Days on Market: 35 ⬆️
Price Decreased: 30% ⬆️
Price Increased: 1% ⬆️
Relisted: 7%
Inventory: 135 ⬇️
Median Rent: $1,955 ⬇️
Market Action Index (MAI): 43 ⬆️ (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Despite the highest inventory level in our tracking area (135 units, though down from 148), the MAI has strengthened to 43 (up from 41 last month), indicating robust demand. The Market Monitor shows price weakness across most segments, with median list price dropping from $297,450 to $257,000. New listings are entering below the current median price ($248,500 vs. $257,000), suggesting strategic pricing by sellers entering the market. Marketing periods have lengthened with median DOM increasing from 28 to 35 days. The slight 1% of properties seeing price increases amid 30% with decreases highlights the challenging but stabilizing market conditions.
Key Takeaways
What This Means for Buyers
If you're a buyer in today's market, these swings create both challenges and opportunities:
Windows of opportunity open and close quickly
Be prepared to move fast when competition eases
Full inspections are back as viable options during cooling periods
Financing contingencies are more acceptable again
Price negotiations are increasingly possible, with 21% of properties selling below list
The key is being ready to act decisively when conditions favor buyers, as they may shift again quickly.
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, this volatility creates new strategic considerations:
Pricing strategy is critical - overpricing during a cooling period can lead to extended market time
Marketing matters more - when buyer pools are thinner, comprehensive exposure becomes vital
Timing market entry requires careful attention to both macro and micro trends
Seller concessions may be necessary in ways they weren't even two weeks ago
Pre-market preparation is more important than ever
Looking Forward: What's Next?
As we move deeper into April, I'm watching several key indicators:
MCPS Spring Break Impact: This week's school break will likely continue the cooling trend temporarily
Financial Market Stability: Any recovery in the stock market could quickly restore buyer confidence
Inventory Levels: We're entering the heart of the spring listing season, and how much inventory comes online will be crucial
Interest Rate Movement: Even small changes could significantly impact buyer psychology
My prediction is that we'll see continued volatility through April, with the potential for another competitive surge in early May as buyers who paused re-enter the market.
Ready to Take Action?
For Buyers, in this volatile market, early access to listings can make all the difference. Zenlist gives you immediate notifications for coming soon properties and all active listings in real time, often before they hit major portals. Request your free access today, https://zenlist.com/a/corey.feldman
For Sellers, wondering how to maximize your return in this evolving market? Get a personalized, data based home value assessment, tailored to your property’s unique features and neighborhood trends, https://bit.ly/dcmetrocma
Understanding these local market dynamics is essential whether you’re navigating this competitive landscape as a buyer or maximizing your return as a seller. Let’s discuss how these trends impact your specific real estate goals.
Share this post