Happy Monday everyone, hope everyone had a fantastic weekend! I'll be adding a new section to Market Monday called Hidden Inventory. Through our access to Compass's off-market network and RLAH's existing private listing collection, we have access to the largest number of off-market properties in the DC Metro area.
This week's data (as of July 13) shows the market continuing its post-holiday recalibration. Our Weekend Market Pulse data confirmed the expected holiday slowdown with reduced competition and more realistic pricing, followed by signs of activity normalization. With most MAI numbers holding steady or dropping slightly, we're seeing the emergence of more defined absorption patterns that reveal where buyer resistance is crystallizing.
The market dynamics suggest continued price discovery across segments, with specific thresholds becoming increasingly apparent in both condo and single-family segments. While overall conditions remain in seller's market territory, the granular data tells a more nuanced story.
Hidden Inventory
Before we get into the Altos breakdown of the MLS data, let's highlight some hidden inventory. Through our access to Compass's off-market network and RLAH's existing private listing collection, we have access to the largest number of off-market properties in the DC Metro area. Approximately in…
Bethesda: 17 well 16, I just put a buyer under contract on of these homes.
Chevy Chase: 13
Gaithersburg & North Potomac: 8
Germantown: 6
Kensington: 6
Potomac: 6
Rockville & North Bethesda: 20
Silver Spring: 25
Given Zillow is actively blocking any listings that start off-market, you might never see some of the best opportunities there. Want to know what's actually available? Reach out and I'll fill you in.
Community Data
🏡 Bethesda, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,093,500
Median Price of New Listings: $2,147,000
Price Per Square Foot: $441
Average Days on Market: 76
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 37%
Price Increased: 2%
Relisted: 17%
Inventory: 156
Median Rent: $5,300
MAI: 40 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling off a bit in recent weeks, as more homes are available and demand is less. We're already seeing prices move lower as a result, though the market is still in the Seller's zone.
My Take: The luxury segment (Q1: $3.575M median) is showing the most resistance with 91 DOM, while the entry tier (Q4: $1.195M) moves quickly at 21 DOM. The 37% price reduction rate signals sellers are adjusting expectations, yet absorption exceeds inventory in lower two quartiles. The bottom quartile at a median price of $1,195,000 shows strength: 21 days on market, 6 new units and 7 absorbed.
🏢 Bethesda, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $415,000
Median Price of New Listings: $399,000
Price Per Square Foot: $345
Average Days on Market: 46
Median Days on Market: 35
Price Decreased: 41%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 6%
Inventory: 51
Median Rent: $3,050
MAI: 40 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone.
My Take: Absorption is meeting or beating inventory in all 4 quartiles. Days on Market for 2 bedroom units are lagging.
🏡 Chevy Chase, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,195,000
Median Price of New Listings: $1,149,000
Price Per Square Foot: $529
Average Days on Market: 103
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 37%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 12%
Inventory: 49
Median Rent: $4,950
MAI: 39 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks, the market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to continue to fall a bit despite technically being a Seller's market.
My Take: The ultra-high-end (Q1: $4.25M) is completely stalled with 154 DOM and zero absorption, while the bottom quartile ($1.272M) maintains momentum with 1 new unit and 1 absorbed, with 21 days on market. While no new properties hit the second lowest quartile with a median price of $1,996,000, two units were absorbed. Basically the bottom half is moving and the top half is stalled.
🏢 Chevy Chase, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $462,000
Median Price of New Listings: $374,000
Price Per Square Foot: $413
Average Days on Market: 84
Median Days on Market: 56
Price Decreased: 39%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 12%
Inventory: 74
Median Rent: $2,640
MAI: 31 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market remains in a relative stasis in terms of sales to inventory and prices have been relatively stable for a few weeks.
My Take: At MAI 31, this is the softest market in our coverage area, yet I am seeing signs of strength at least compared to the limited inventory. Only 1 unit added and 3 absorbed, 1 in each of the lower 3 quartiles.
🏡 Gaithersburg, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $853,850
Median Price of New Listings: $785,000
Price Per Square Foot: $274
Average Days on Market: 63
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 36%
Price Increased: 2%
Relisted: 14%
Inventory: 108
Median Rent: $3,200
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory.
My Take: Gaithersburg has been a fairly hot market but we might be seeing some early signs of weakness. Across all quartiles we had 18 new units but only 7 absorbed.
🏢 Gaithersburg, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $479,900
Median Price of New Listings: $534,700
Price Per Square Foot: $294
Average Days on Market: 42
Median Days on Market: 21
Price Decreased: 35%
Price Increased: 2%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 89
Median Rent: $2,263
MAI: 55 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: The market has not shown strong directional trends in terms of supply and demand. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone and prices have been moving upward.
My Take: Seeing healthy days on market but I’m a little troubled by the limited absorption in the middle two quartiles. Could be a short lived lull from a pop in inventory, but the next couple of weeks will be telling.
🏡 Germantown, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $799,990
Median Price of New Listings: $676,950
Price Per Square Foot: $272
Average Days on Market: 48
Median Days on Market: 28
Price Decreased: 32%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 20%
Inventory: 41
Median Rent: $2,573
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling over time and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in MAI, we're in a Seller's Market.
My Take: Days on Market for the bottom two quartiles are healthy but inventory is outpacing absorption which if continues will likely put downward pressure on pricing.
🏢 Germantown, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $365,000
Median Price of New Listings: $475,000
Price Per Square Foot: $263
Average Days on Market: 42
Median Days on Market: 21
Price Decreased: 36%
Price Increased: 3%
Relisted: 5%
Inventory: 91
Median Rent: $2,023
MAI: 51 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling over time and prices plateaued for a while. Despite the consistent decrease in MAI, we're in the Seller's zone.
My Take: I see more strength here than Altos. Healthy Days on Market and while 10 new properties hit the market, 17 were absorbed.
🏡 Kensington, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,150,000
Median Price of New Listings: $1,164,500
Price Per Square Foot: $356
Average Days on Market: 60
Median Days on Market: 39
Price Decreased: 28%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 40
Median Rent: $4,200
MAI: 47 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone and prices have recently resumed upward pressure.
My Take: Tight inventory creates strong dynamics. The top and bottom quartiles are showing strength and met or exceeded inventory. Only 1 new property hit the market and 7 were absorbed. With such limited inventory if you're looking in this area, I would recommend looking at some Off Market/Private exclusive listings.
🏡 Poolesville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $925,000
Median Price of New Listings: $725,000
Price Per Square Foot: $291
Average Days on Market: 109
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 31%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 0%
Inventory: 13
Median Rent: $3,250
MAI: 35 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling off a bit in recent weeks, as more homes are available and demand is less. We're already seeing prices move lower as a result. Expect this trend to continue especially if the index falls to the Buyer's zone.
My Take: The most constrained inventory in our coverage area at just 13 homes, yet showing the softest MAI at 35. Ultra-luxury segment (Q1: $1.337M) extremely slow at 182 DOM with minimal absorption, while even entry-level properties struggle. This micro-market requires aggressive pricing strategies for sellers and presents unique opportunities for patient buyers.
🏡 Potomac, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,795,000
Median Price of New Listings: $1,382,500
Price Per Square Foot: $361
Average Days on Market: 87
Median Days on Market: 49
Price Decreased: 32%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 12%
Inventory: 69
Median Rent: $5,000
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to continue to fall a bit despite technically being a Seller's market.
My Take: The bottom two quartiles $1,175,000 median price to $1,475,000 are showing significant strength. Absorption met or exceeded inventory and Days on Market are sitting between 21-35 which is very healthy. Unsurprisingly days on market at the median price of $3,497,500 move slowly but that top quartile absorbed 2 while only adding one new unit. The weakest segment is at the $1,895,000 mark with 2 new units but only 1 absorbed and Days on Market are running long at 49. Given the days on market and absorption rate, combined with relatively low inventory, If you're not finding next home, make sure to look at private exclusives.
🏡 Rockville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $749,000
Median Price of New Listings: $685,000
Price Per Square Foot: $342
Average Days on Market: 50
Median Days on Market: 28
Price Decreased: 44%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 10%
Inventory: 79
Median Rent: $3,500
MAI: 54 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks, the market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to have been falling recently despite being a Seller's market.
My Take: This is healthy market with a solid sellers advantage. 13 units added and 18 absorbed. with low days on market in 3 of 4 quartiles.
🏢 Rockville, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $452,500
Median Price of New Listings: $450,000
Price Per Square Foot: $338
Average Days on Market: 68
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 39%
Price Increased: 1%
Relisted: 10%
Inventory: 150
Median Rent: $2,561
MAI: 41 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market remains in a relative stasis in terms of sales to inventory. Prices have not been moving higher for several weeks.
My Take: This market is a bit more balanced than the single family market, with more opportunities for buyers. 16 new units and 12 absorbed and Days on Market are creeping up.
🏡 Silver Spring, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $695,000
Median Price of New Listings: $699,900
Price Per Square Foot: $319
Average Days on Market: 47
Median Days on Market: 21
Price Decreased: 36%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 182
Median Rent: $3,200
MAI: 52 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory.
My Take: Strong absorption across most price points signals genuine demand depth. The second highest quartile with a median price of $745,000 is likely the biggest challenge here: 10 homes hit the market but only 1 was absorbed. That said overall 29 units hit the market and 25 were absorbed with relatively low days on market. I think buyers have a bit more buying power than the MAI would indicate.
🏢 Silver Spring, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $262,000
Median Price of New Listings: $314,750
Price Per Square Foot: $245
Average Days on Market: 72
Median Days on Market: 49
Price Decreased: 38%
Price Increased: 1%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 164
Median Rent: $1,975
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory.
My Take: Entry-level opportunity with strong rental yields. The premium segment (Q1: $479K) shows excellent momentum while lower tiers require patience. Absorption overall outpaced inventory.
Key Takeaways.
Entry-Level Resilience vs. Mid-Tier Vulnerability: Bottom quartiles maintaining momentum across premium markets (Bethesda SF bottom quartile: 6 new, 7 absorbed at 21 DOM), while specific price points like Silver Spring's $745K segment (10 new, 1 absorbed) and the $500K threshold in multiple condo/Townhouse markets showing absorption challenges.
Aspirational Pricing vs. True Weakness: High price decrease rates in strong absorption markets (Rockville SF: 44% decreases but beating inventory in all quartiles) reflect seller pricing discipline rather than demand weakness, contrasting with genuine stagnation in ultra-luxury segments (Chevy Chase Q1: 0 absorption, 154 DOM).
Market Bifurcation at Community Level: Even within individual communities, stark performance splits emerging - Potomac's bottom two quartiles showing exceptional strength while $1.895M segment struggles, and Chevy Chase's clear division between moving bottom half and stalled top half.
The data reveals a market where absorption capacity varies dramatically by precise price points rather than broad market classifications, requiring hyper-local pricing strategies and indicating buyers are becoming increasingly selective within their qualified ranges.
Looking Ahead
Watch for the $500K threshold across multiple communities in the condo/townhome market as a potential inflection point for buyer resistance.
Gaithersburg SF's early weakness signals (18 new, 7 absorbed) may preview broader market shifts in previously hot areas.
Aspirational pricing corrections in strong absorption markets like Rockville suggest sellers are adjusting expectations without fundamental demand erosion.
The bifurcated performance within communities indicates pricing precision will become increasingly critical through summer.
Ready to Move?
For Buyers: Start with real-time MLS search: https://zenlist.com/a/corey.feldman. Not seeing what you want in the open market? In tight inventory markets like Kensington and Potomac, reach out about private exclusives.
For Sellers: Avoid aspirational pricing that leads to unnecessary reductions. Get your data-driven market analysis: https://bit.ly/dcmetrocma
Questions about private exclusives or these market dynamics? Let's discuss your specific situation at 301-564-3058. Here's to a productive week ahead!
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