Good morning! I hope everyone had a happy and safe 4th of July weekend.
Our Weekend Market Pulse (covering June 25 - July 2, ending two days before the holiday) showed competitive conditions with buyer opportunities:
An average of 1.2 offers with 50% of new contract reaching multiple offers.
25% of buyers waiving inspections (12% skipping entirely, 13% doing pre-inspections)
50% of contracts at or above list price
My take on the holiday impact: Since our brokerage market pulse data ended two days before the 4th of July, any holiday impact isn't reflected in these numbers. I think next week's numbers will show a decline for this past holiday weekend - anecdotally, my personal business was slow enough that I got a lot of family time in this weekend. We did ratify an off-market deal but that had been two weeks in the making. I also expect next weeks’ activity to rebound to close to what we had for the June 25 - July 2 period, though that rebound won't be reflected in the data until the following week.
As usual competitive intensity and pricing pressure vary significantly by location and price segment.
Community Data
🏡 Bethesda, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,093,500
Median Price of New Listings: $2,147,000
Price Per Square Foot: $441
Average Days on Market: 76
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 37%
Price Increased: 2%
Relisted: 17%
Inventory: 156
Median Rent: $5,300
MAI: 40 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling off a bit in recent weeks, as more homes are available and demand is less. We're already seeing prices move lower as a result, though the market is still in the Seller's zone.
My Take: The luxury segment (Q1: $3.575M median) is showing the most resistance with 91 DOM, while the entry tier (Q4: $1.195M) moves quickly at 21 DOM. The 37% price reduction rate signals sellers are adjusting expectations, yet absorption remains exceeds inventory in lower two quartiles. The bottom quartile at a medium price of $1,195,000 show strength; 21 days on market, 6 new units and 7 absorbed.
🏢 Bethesda, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $415,000
Median Price of New Listings: $399,000
Price Per Square Foot: $345
Average Days on Market: 46
Median Days on Market: 35
Price Decreased: 41%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 6%
Inventory: 51
Median Rent: $3,050
MAI: 40 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone.
My Take: inventory generally outpacing absorption, good chance as well move deeper into the summer this dips into the buyer advantage zone.
🏡 Chevy Chase, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,195,000
Median Price of New Listings: $1,149,000
Price Per Square Foot: $529
Average Days on Market: 103
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 37%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 12%
Inventory: 49
Median Rent: $4,950
MAI: 39 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks, the market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to continue to fall a bit despite technically being a Seller's market.
My Take: The ultra-high-end (Q1: $4.25M) is completely stalled with 154 DOM and zero absorption, while the bottom quartile ($1.272M) maintains momentum with 1 new unit and 1 absorbed, with 21 days on market. While no new properties hit the second lowest quartile with a medium price of $1,996,000, two unit were absorbed. Basically the bottom half is moving and the top half is stalled.
🏢 Chevy Chase, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $462,000
Median Price of New Listings: $374,000
Price Per Square Foot: $413
Average Days on Market: 84
Median Days on Market: 56
Price Decreased: 39%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 12%
Inventory: 74
Median Rent: $2,640
MAI: 31 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market remains in a relative stasis in terms of sales to inventory and prices have been relatively stable for a few weeks.
My Take: At MAI 31, this is the softest market in our coverage area, yet I am seeing signs of strength. The luxury segment (Q1: $1.295M) is surprising. healthy, but mid-range units struggle. The 84-day average DOM suggests patience is required, particularly for anything over $500K.
🏡 Gaithersburg, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $853,850
Median Price of New Listings: $785,000
Price Per Square Foot: $274
Average Days on Market: 63
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 36%
Price Increased: 2%
Relisted: 14%
Inventory: 108
Median Rent: $3,200
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory.
My Take: Gaithersburg has been a fairly hot market but we might be seeing some early signs of weakness. Across all quartiles we had 18 new units but only 7 absorbed.
🏢 Gaithersburg, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $479,900
Median Price of New Listings: $534,700
Price Per Square Foot: $294
Average Days on Market: 42
Median Days on Market: 21
Price Decreased: 35%
Price Increased: 2%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 89
Median Rent: $2,263
MAI: 55 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: The market has not shown strong directional trends in terms of supply and demand. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone and prices have been moving upward.
My Take: This is our strongest condo/townhome market with MAI 55. All quartiles showing excellent velocity 21-28 Days on Market. The upward price trajectory and 21-day median DOM signal genuine strength. This is a hot market with 14 new unit and 20 absorbed.
🏡 Germantown, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $799,990
Median Price of New Listings: $676,950
Price Per Square Foot: $272
Average Days on Market: 48
Median Days on Market: 28
Price Decreased: 32%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 20%
Inventory: 41
Median Rent: $2,573
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling over time and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in MAI, we're in a Seller's Market.
My Take: Limited inventory creates opportunity. The luxury segment (Q1: $1.8M) commands premium pricing but moves slowly, while the entry tier (Q4: $582K) shows excellent velocity at 7 DOM. The 20% relist rate and 32% price decreases suggests some pricing discipline is needed.
🏢 Germantown, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $365,000
Median Price of New Listings: $475,000
Price Per Square Foot: $263
Average Days on Market: 42
Median Days on Market: 21
Price Decreased: 36%
Price Increased: 3%
Relisted: 5%
Inventory: 91
Median Rent: $2,023
MAI: 51 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling over time and prices plateaued for a while. Despite the consistent decrease in MAI, we're in the Seller's zone.
My Take: The Second highest quartile at a medium price of $435,000 is showing strength and absorption, but overall I’m concerned to see 15 units hit the market but only 9 being absorbed. We might be seeing early sign of weakness at about the 500K mark.
🏡 Kensington, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,150,000
Median Price of New Listings: $1,164,500
Price Per Square Foot: $356
Average Days on Market: 60
Median Days on Market: 39
Price Decreased: 28%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 40
Median Rent: $4,200
MAI: 47 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, inventory is sufficiently low to keep us in the Seller's Market zone and prices have recently resumed upward pressure.
My Take: Tight inventory creates strong dynamics. The top and bottom quartiles are showing strength and met or exceed inventory. Absorption on the two middle quartiles did not keep up with inventory.
🏡 Poolesville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $925,000
Median Price of New Listings: $725,000
Price Per Square Foot: $291
Average Days on Market: 109
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 31%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 0%
Inventory: 13
Median Rent: $3,250
MAI: 35 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been cooling off a bit in recent weeks, as more homes are available and demand is less. We're already seeing prices move lower as a result. Expect this trend to continue especially if the index falls to the Buyer's zone.
My Take: The most constrained inventory in our coverage area at just 13 homes, yet showing the softest MAI at 35. Ultra-luxury segment (Q1: $1.337M) completely stalled at 182 DOM with minimal absorption, while even entry-level properties struggle. This micro-market requires aggressive pricing strategies for sellers and presents unique opportunities for patient buyers.
🏡 Potomac, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,795,000
Median Price of New Listings: $1,382,500
Price Per Square Foot: $361
Average Days on Market: 87
Median Days on Market: 49
Price Decreased: 32%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 12%
Inventory: 69
Median Rent: $5,000
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to continue to fall a bit despite technically being a Seller's market.
My Take: The bottom two quartile $1,175,000 medium price to 1,475,000 are showing significant strength. Absorption met or exceeded inventory and Days on Market are sitting between 21-35 which is very healthy. Unsurprisingly days on market at the medium price of $3,497,500 move slowly but that top quartile absorbed 2 while only adding one new unit. The weakest segment is at $1,895,000 mark with 2 new units but only 1 absorbed and Days on Market are running long at 49.
🏡 Rockville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $749,000
Median Price of New Listings: $685,000
Price Per Square Foot: $342
Average Days on Market: 50
Median Days on Market: 28
Price Decreased: 44%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 10%
Inventory: 79
Median Rent: $3,500
MAI: 54 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks, the market has been at a stasis point in terms of sales to inventory. However, prices seem to have been falling recently despite being a Seller's market.
My Take: I think the price decreases here are mostly due aspirational pricing. This is a healthy market with 13 new units being and 18 absorbed, beating inventory in each quartile.
🏢 Rockville, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $452,500
Median Price of New Listings: $450,000
Price Per Square Foot: $338
Average Days on Market: 68
Median Days on Market: 42
Price Decreased: 39%
Price Increased: 1%
Relisted: 10%
Inventory: 150
Median Rent: $2,561
MAI: 41 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: The market remains in a relative stasis in terms of sales to inventory. Prices have not been moving higher for several weeks.
My Take: Largest inventory in our condo coverage at 150 units provides good selection. All quartiles showing impressive absorption with acceptable DOM. As with the Rockville single family market, I would likely attribute the price decreases and relist rate to aspirational pricing versus market weakness.
🏡 Silver Spring, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $695,000
Median Price of New Listings: $699,900
Price Per Square Foot: $319
Average Days on Market: 47
Median Days on Market: 21
Price Decreased: 36%
Price Increased: 0%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 182
Median Rent: $3,200
MAI: 52 (Strong Seller's Market)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory.
My Take: Strong absorption across most price points signals genuine demand depth. The second highest quartile with a medium price of $745,000 is likely the biggest challenge here, 10 homes hit the market but only 1 was absorbed.
🏢 Silver Spring, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $262,000
Median Price of New Listings: $314,750
Price Per Square Foot: $245
Average Days on Market: 72
Median Days on Market: 49
Price Decreased: 38%
Price Increased: 1%
Relisted: 8%
Inventory: 164
Median Rent: $1,975
MAI: 44 (Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Narrative: In the last few weeks the market has achieved a relative stasis point in terms of sales to inventory.
My Take: Entry-level opportunity with strong rental yields. The premium segment (Q1: $479K) shows excellent momentum while lower tiers require patience. Absorption overall outpaced inventory but the $312,500 quartile is the weakest here.
Key Takeaways
Absorption Divergence by Price Point: Strong seller's markets like Rockville SF (13 new, 18 absorbed) and Gaithersburg condos (14 new, 20 absorbed) demonstrate healthy demand, while previously hot markets like Gaithersburg SF showing early weakness (18 new, only 7 absorbed) - suggesting buyer selectivity is intensifying.
Entry-Level Resilience vs. Mid-Tier Vulnerability: Bottom quartiles maintaining momentum across premium markets (Bethesda SF bottom quartile: 6 new, 7 absorbed at 21 DOM), while specific price points like Silver Spring's $745K segment (10 new, 1 absorbed) and the $500K threshold in multiple markets showing absorption challenges.
Aspirational Pricing vs. True Weakness: High price decrease rates in strong absorption markets (Rockville SF: 44% decreases but beating inventory in all quartiles) reflect seller pricing discipline rather than demand weakness, contrasting with genuine stagnation in ultra-luxury segments (Chevy Chase Q1: 0 absorption, 154 DOM).
Market Bifurcation at Community Level: Even within individual communities, stark performance splits emerging - Potomac's bottom two quartiles showing exceptional strength while $1.895M segment struggles, and Chevy Chase's clear division between moving bottom half and stalled top half.
Post-holiday market dynamics suggest a bifurcated environment where well-priced properties continue to move efficiently while overpriced inventory accumulates, creating clear strategic pathways for both buyers and sellers willing to price realistically.
Looking Ahead
Watch for the $500K threshold across multiple communities as a potential inflection point for buyer resistance. Gaithersburg SF's early weakness signals (18 new, 7 absorbed) may preview broader market shifts in previously hot areas.
Aspirational pricing corrections in strong absorption markets like Rockville suggest sellers are adjusting expectations without fundamental demand erosion. The bifurcated performance within premium communities indicates pricing precision will become increasingly critical through summer.
As we move deeper into July expect to see more buyer opportunities.
Ready to move?
For Buyers: Post-holiday inventory refresh creates opportunities, especially in luxury segments showing pricing flexibility. Get strategic insights and early access: https://zenlist.com/a/corey.feldman
For Sellers: Market dynamics favor realistic pricing strategies with 35-44% reduction rates signaling negotiation-heavy environment. Get your data-driven market analysis: https://bit.ly/dcmetrocma
Questions about these evolving summer dynamics? Let's discuss your specific situation at 301-564-3058. Here's to a successful week ahead!
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