Good morning, and I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend! As we kick off June, this week's data confirms the market segmentation story we've been tracking, with competition heating up significantly in certain neighborhoods and price tiers while others remain more balanced.
Competition Surges in Select Pockets While Broader Market Shows Mixed Signals
This week's brokerage data from RLAH @properties reveals a fascinating paradox: while our Weekend Market Pulse documented intense competition with multiple offers surging from 24% to 54% of new contracts, the underlying community data shows extended marketing times and cooling in many segments.
This apparent contradiction illuminates the market's increasingly fragmented nature. The competition surge appears concentrated in very specific price points and property types, while broader market indicators suggest buyer selectivity is increasing across most communities. Multiple offers may be intensifying on the "right" properties while others face longer marketing periods.
However, the headline numbers tell only part of the story. While 46% of properties sold above list price, marketing times extended across most communities, with Silver Spring seeing homes take 21 days instead of 14 days to sell, and Bethesda extending from 35 to 42 days. This suggests the competition surge is extremely selective, concentrated on properties that meet specific buyer criteria while others face a more challenging environment.
Mixed Signals Across Montgomery County Communities
The Montgomery County real estate market exhibits increasingly divergent conditions this week, with some communities experiencing notable cooling while others maintain stability. The data reveals a market where location and price tier are the primary determinants of seller and buyer experiences.
While competition heated up significantly in certain segments, several premium markets show continued adjustment, with longer marketing times and increased price reduction activity indicating buyers are becoming more selective in higher price ranges.
Montgomery County Market Breakdown by Community and Property Type
🏡 Bethesda, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,124,500 (⬆️ from $2,095,000)
Median Price of New Listings: $1,374,499 (⬇️ from $1,810,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $451 (⬆️ from $450)
Average Days on Market: 75 (⬆️ from 69)
Median Days on Market: 42 (⬆️ from 35)
Price Decreased: 40% (⬇️ from 47%)
Price Increased: 1% (⬇️ from 3%)
Relisted: 17% (⬆️ from 16%)
Inventory: 132 (⬇️ from 137)
Median Rent: $5,500 (↔️ from $5,500)
MAI: 42 (⬆️ from 41) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Bethesda shows the complexity of current market dynamics with MAI improving to 42 from 41 due to inventory declining, yet individual properties are taking longer to sell (42 days vs 35 days). This suggests fewer new listings are entering the market, but buyer demand has softened, creating the paradox of "improving" market conditions alongside longer marketing times. Price reduction activity moderating to 40% indicates some stabilization.
🏢 Bethesda, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $417,000 (⬇️ from $428,000)
Median Price of New Listings: $244,999 (⬇️ from $439,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $335 (⬇️ from $346)
Average Days on Market: 61 (⬆️ from 51)
Median Days on Market: 35 (⬆️ from 28)
Price Decreased: 37% (⬆️ from 35%)
Price Increased: 2% (↔️ from 2%)
Relisted: 9% (⬆️ from 6%)
Inventory: 46 (⬇️ from 49)
Median Rent: $3,039 (⬆️ from $3,030)
MAI: 41 (⬇️ from 43) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: The condo market experiences cooling with MAI declining from 43 to 41 and marketing times extending. The dramatic drop in new listing prices ($245K vs $439K) likely reflects different property types entering rather than seller adjustment. Despite inventory declining, buyer engagement appears more cautious.
🏡 Chevy Chase, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $2,100,000 (⬆️ from $1,999,000)
Median Price of New Listings: $1,942,500 (⬆️ from $1,335,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $559 (⬆️ from $542)
Average Days on Market: 78 (⬆️ from 72)
Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 21)
Price Decreased: 32% (⬇️ from 39%)
Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
Relisted: 19% (⬇️ from 20%)
Inventory: 53 (⬇️ from 56)
Median Rent: $6,150 (⬆️ from $5,498)
MAI: 40 (⬆️ from 37) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Chevy Chase shows renewed confidence with significant increases in both median list price and new listing prices, suggesting sellers are testing higher price points. However, the quartile data reveals extreme market segmentation: ultra-luxury homes ($3.9M) require 168 days to sell while more affordable properties ($1.27M) move in just 7 days, a staggering 161-day performance gap that illustrates the two-tiered market reality.
🏢 Chevy Chase, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $482,500 (↔️ from $482,500)
Median Price of New Listings: $475,000 (⬆️ from $445,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $410 (⬆️ from $409)
Average Days on Market: 74 (⬆️ from 72)
Median Days on Market: 49 (⬆️ from 42)
Price Decreased: 30% (⬆️ from 29%)
Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
Relisted: 10% (⬇️ from 11%)
Inventory: 80 (⬆️ from 76)
Median Rent: $2,690 (⬆️ from $2,650)
MAI: 31 (⬇️ from 33) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Shows cooling with MAI declining from 33 to 31 and median selling time extending to 49 days from 42 days. However, higher new listing prices ($475K vs $445K) suggest continued seller confidence. Market remains stable despite modest headwinds.
🏡 Gaithersburg, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $899,000 (⬆️ from $879,000)
Median Price of New Listings: $737,450 (⬇️ from $765,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $261 (⬆️ from $260)
Average Days on Market: 63 (⬆️ from 52)
Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 21)
Price Decreased: 38% (⬇️ from 39%)
Price Increased: 0% (⬇️ from 3%)
Relisted: 9% (⬇️ from 10%)
Inventory: 93 (⬇️ from 111)
Median Rent: $3,350 (⬆️ from $3,000)
MAI: 46 (⬆️ from 45) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Gaithersburg demonstrates resilience with median pricing climbing and MAI improving to 46 from 45. Despite marketing times extending to 28 days from 21 days, price reduction activity moderates and inventory declines significantly. The market maintains strong seller-favorable conditions across price segments.
🏢 Gaithersburg, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $450,000 (⬆️ from $429,950)
Median Price of New Listings: $307,450 (⬇️ from $372,500)
Price Per Square Foot: $274 (↔️ from $274)
Average Days on Market: 49 (⬆️ from 39)
Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 14)
Price Decreased: 37% (⬆️ from 32%)
Price Increased: 1% (↔️ from 1%)
Relisted: 10% (⬆️ from 8%)
Inventory: 73 (⬇️ from 84)
Median Rent: $2,225 (⬆️ from $2,215)
MAI: 57 (⬆️ from 54) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Shows strong improvement with MAI rising from 54 to 57 and median pricing climbing despite longer marketing times. The doubling of median selling time from 14 to 28 days warrants monitoring, though price reduction activity remains manageable at 37%. Inventory declines support continued strength.
🏡 Germantown, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $850,000 (⬆️ from $847,450)
Median Price of New Listings: $857,500 (⬆️ from $625,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $254 (⬇️ from $262)
Average Days on Market: 57 (⬆️ from 53)
Median Days on Market: 35 (⬆️ from 28)
Price Decreased: 44% (⬇️ from 46%)
Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
Relisted: 8% (↔️ from 8%)
Inventory: 25 (⬆️ from 24)
Median Rent: $2,600 (⬆️ from $2,595)
MAI: 59 (⬇️ from 62) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Germantown maintains robust conditions despite MAI cooling from 62 to 59. The significant increase in new listing prices ($858K vs $625K) demonstrates seller confidence, while price reduction activity moderates to 44%. Marketing times extending to 35 days from 28 days suggests some buyer selectivity, but fundamentals remain strong.
🏢 Germantown, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $315,000 (⬇️ from $326,700)
Median Price of New Listings: $449,900 (⬆️ from $322,499)
Price Per Square Foot: $261 (⬇️ from $263)
Average Days on Market: 45 (⬆️ from 39)
Median Days on Market: 21 (⬆️ from 14)
Price Decreased: 38% (↔️ from 38%)
Price Increased: 3% (⬇️ from 4%)
Relisted: 8% (⬇️ from 9%)
Inventory: 63 (⬇️ from 69)
Median Rent: $2,001 (⬆️ from $1,963)
MAI: 61 (⬇️ from 68) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Despite MAI cooling from 68 to 61, this remains one of the county's strongest markets. New listings entering at significantly higher prices ($450K vs $322K) shows seller optimism, while marketing times remain reasonable at 21 days. The market demonstrates continued resilience despite some moderation.
🏡 Kensington, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,150,000 (⬆️ from $1,087,500)
Median Price of New Listings: $925,000 (⬆️ from $739,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $384 (⬇️ from $405)
Average Days on Market: 54 (⬆️ from 46)
Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 21)
Price Decreased: 27% (⬇️ from 35%)
Price Increased: 0% (⬇️ from 3%)
Relisted: 12% (⬇️ from 15%)
Inventory: 33 (⬇️ from 34)
Median Rent: $4,200 (↔️ from $4,200)
MAI: 49 (⬇️ from 53) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Kensington shows mixed signals with pricing rising substantially but MAI cooling from 53 to 49. The significant increases in both median list price and new listing prices suggest renewed seller confidence, while price reduction activity drops dramatically to 27% from 35%. Marketing times extending warrant monitoring, but overall conditions remain favorable.
🏡 Poolesville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,049,000 (⬇️ from $1,113,500)
Median Price of New Listings: $949,900 (⬆️ from $512,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $289 (↔️ from $289)
Average Days on Market: 121 (⬆️ from 106)
Median Days on Market: 35 (⬆️ from 25)
Price Decreased: 33% (⬆️ from 30%)
Price Increased: 0% (⬇️ from 10%)
Relisted: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
Inventory: 9 (⬇️ from 10)
Median Rent: $2,400 (↔️ from $2,400)
MAI: 41 (⬇️ from 44) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: This micro-market shows continued volatility with MAI declining from 44 to 41 and extended marketing times. The dramatic increase in new listing prices ($950K vs $512K) reflects the small inventory base where individual listings significantly impact averages. Ultra-luxury properties continue requiring extended marketing periods exceeding 300 days.
🏡 Potomac, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $1,875,000 (⬇️ from $1,937,000)
Median Price of New Listings: $1,447,500 (⬇️ from $1,724,500)
Price Per Square Foot: $363 (⬆️ from $362)
Average Days on Market: 67 (⬆️ from 65)
Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 25)
Price Decreased: 32% (⬆️ from 29%)
Price Increased: 0% (↔️ from 0%)
Relisted: 4% (⬇️ from 5%)
Inventory: 78 (↔️ from 78)
Median Rent: $5,338 (⬇️ from $5,350)
MAI: 45 (↔️ from 45) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Potomac shows continued adjustment with both median list price and new listing prices declining. Marketing times extend modestly to 28 days from 25 days, while price reduction activity increases to 32%. However, the quartile breakdown reveals a telling story: entry-level Potomac homes ($1.1M) are selling in just 21 days, while ultra-luxury properties ($3.5M) require 66 days.
🏡 Rockville, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $874,000 (⬇️ from $899,000)
Median Price of New Listings: $784,500 (⬇️ from $830,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $352 (⬆️ from $350)
Average Days on Market: 46 (⬆️ from 38)
Median Days on Market: 25 (⬆️ from 21)
Price Decreased: 41% (↔️ from 41%)
Price Increased: 1% (⬇️ from 2%)
Relisted: 8% (⬇️ from 9%)
Inventory: 76 (⬇️ from 90)
Median Rent: $3,300 (⬇️ from $3,400)
MAI: 55 (⬇️ from 56) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Rockville experiences modest cooling with pricing declining and marketing times extending to 25 days from 21 days. Despite MAI declining from 56 to 55, inventory decreases support continued seller-favorable conditions. Price reduction activity remains elevated at 41%, indicating ongoing market adjustment.
🏢 Rockville, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $444,900 (↔️ from $444,450)
Median Price of New Listings: $389,000 (⬇️ from $567,000)
Price Per Square Foot: $345 (↔️ from $345)
Average Days on Market: 62 (⬆️ from 53)
Median Days on Market: 28 (⬆️ from 21)
Price Decreased: 37% (⬆️ from 32%)
Price Increased: 2% (⬆️ from 1%)
Relisted: 8% (⬇️ from 9%)
Inventory: 131 (⬇️ from 134)
Median Rent: $2,535 (⬆️ from $2,500)
MAI: 42 (↔️ from 42) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Shows stability with MAI holding at 42 and pricing remaining flat. The decline in new listing prices ($389K vs $567K) and extension of marketing times to 28 days from 21 days suggests buyer caution. Price reduction activity increases to 37%, indicating ongoing adjustment.
🏡 Silver Spring, MD – Single-Family Homes
Median List Price: $679,900 (⬇️ from $689,000)
Median Price of New Listings: $650,000 (⬆️ from $639,999)
Price Per Square Foot: $316 (⬇️ from $326)
Average Days on Market: 50 (⬆️ from 45)
Median Days on Market: 21 (⬆️ from 14)
Price Decreased: 35% (⬇️ from 36%)
Price Increased: 2% (↔️ from 2%)
Relisted: 7% (↔️ from 7%)
Inventory: 133 (⬇️ from 145)
Median Rent: $3,100 (⬇️ from $3,200)
MAI: 56 (⬆️ from 55) (📈 Strong Seller's Market)
Market Analysis: Silver Spring demonstrates the inventory-driven MAI phenomenon, with the index improving to 56 from 55 despite marketing times extending from 14 to 21 days. The improvement reflects inventory declining to 133 from 145 units rather than increased buyer demand. Remarkably, all four price quartiles are selling in exactly 21 days, from luxury homes ($917K) to entry-level properties ($555K), making this the most balanced market in the county with zero segmentation by price tier.
🏢 Silver Spring, MD – Condos/Townhomes
Median List Price: $274,999 (⬇️ from $289,975)
Median Price of New Listings: $450,000 (⬆️ from $364,750)
Price Per Square Foot: $247 (⬇️ from $252)
Average Days on Market: 70 (⬆️ from 63)
Median Days on Market: 49 (⬆️ from 42)
Price Decreased: 42% (⬆️ from 41%)
Price Increased: 1% (⬇️ from 2%)
Relisted: 8% (↔️ from 8%)
Inventory: 158 (⬇️ from 170)
MAI: 43 (↔️ from 43) (📊 Slight Seller's Advantage)
Market Analysis: Shows mixed signals with MAI stable at 43 but marketing times extending significantly to 49 days from 42 days. New listings entering at higher prices ($450K vs $365K) suggests seller optimism, though median pricing declines. The market demonstrates continued adjustment in this price-sensitive segment.
Key Takeaways
Competition Concentrates in Narrow Segments: While multiple offers surged to 54% of contracts, this competition appears highly concentrated in specific property types and price points, as broader community data shows extended marketing times across most areas.
Inventory-Driven MAI Improvements Mask Demand Softening: Several communities show MAI improvements alongside longer marketing times, indicating fewer new listings rather than increased buyer demand are driving the "improved" metrics.
The Paradox of Longer Marketing Times Amid Competition: Properties are taking longer to sell in most communities (14→21 days in Silver Spring, 35→42 days in Bethesda) even as competition intensifies for the "right" properties, highlighting the market's selectivity.
Extreme Performance Gaps Within Communities: In Chevy Chase, ultra-luxury homes ($3.9M) require 168 days to sell while lowest quartile properties ($1.27M) move in 7 days, a staggering 161-day gap that exemplifies the two-tiered reality.
Entry-Level Properties Capture Most Competition: Even in premium markets like Potomac, entry-level homes ($1.1M) sell in 21 days versus 66 days for ultra-luxury ($3.5M), proving that buyer competition concentrates in the more accessible price ranges.
Inventory Dynamics Support Segmented Demand: Despite inventory declining in many communities, marketing times are extending in premium segments, indicating buyers are becoming increasingly selective about price and value propositions.
Looking Ahead
The increase in competition this week validates our prediction that pent-up demand would surface after Memorial Day. However, this surge appears concentrated in specific neighborhoods and price ranges, reinforcing the importance of understanding your local market dynamics.
With 46% of properties selling above list price yet 31% still selling below list, the market continues its evolution toward distinct tiers of competition. As we noted in our Weekend Market Pulse, understanding your specific segment's dynamics matters more than broad market statistics.
Ready to Take Action?
For Buyers: Navigate the competitive segments with early access to listings through Zenlist: https://zenlist.com/a/corey.feldman. If you aren't seeing the property you want on major portals, reach out as RLAH has the largest database of off-market properties in the metro area.
For Sellers: Capitalize on renewed competition with a data-driven property valuation: https://bit.ly/dcmetrocma
Questions about how these segmented market conditions affect your specific situation? Let's talk at 301-564-3058.
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